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| Thursday, 18 June 2020, 16:01 HKT/SGT | |
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香港, 2020年6月18日 - (亚太商讯) - 安捷证券发表研报称，成实外教育(1565.HK)是中国西南地区最大的K12民办教育集团，提供幼儿园到大学的综合性民办教育服务。公司是西南地区最负盛名的状元摇篮之一，在西南地区办学二十年。公司目前经营19所学校，包括在四川地区的17所K12学校、一所大学及位于美国加州的一所大学。
轻资产模式迅速布局拓展学校网络。集团轻资产布局新开学校在2020年至2021年达到高峰期，新校打开天花板的同时，半新校区提高利用率，学生人数增速受提振。集团将在2020年9月新开3个K12校区和1个大学校区，合共8个学段开始招生；2021年将会有6个新校区启用，初步预计会有15个学段开始招生。在对新校区招生计划相对保守的测算下，安捷证券预计公司旗下招生人数将在FY20E-FY22E维持在+15%/+18%/+15%的稳健增长。
强品牌效应促成定价优势。在办学二十年间集团状元摇篮的口碑在西南地区经久不衰，集团旗下学校的报读人数远超招生计划。据公司统计，2019年公司旗下学校小升初及幼升小的录取率仅在15%左右，学位供不应求给了公司较高的议价权。在管理方面，教师干部内部管理培养形成体系，帮助公司在轻装拓展的同时能够维持良好的口碑。
FY20E受疫情一次性打击，FY21E起恢复稳健增长。疫情影响2019/2020学年第二学期开学时间，食堂运营及住宿收入受影响、融资成本增加，安捷证券预计FY20E-FY22E公司总收入将达17.1亿/22.2亿/26.5亿人民币，对应增速为+15%/+30%/+19%，收入端波动主要由于疫情对FY20E业绩造成一次性影响，同样的，安捷证券预计FY20E利润端增速受到成本端压力亦将下滑，如FY21E保持正常增长预计利润端增速将回弹。
估值。安捷证券采用现金流贴现(DCF)方法对公司进行估值，目标价港币2.70元，对应14.3倍FY21E预测市盈率水平，首次覆盖给予买入评级。
风险：1) 监管政策风险；2) 新校区招生情况不及预期；及3) 汇率风险。
话题 Press release summary
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