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| Monday, 25 May 2020, 18:09 HKT/SGT | |
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香港, 2020年5月25日 - (亚太商讯) - 安捷证券发表研报称，1Q20A用户及GMV增长大幅超预期。1Q20A拼多多实现营收65.4亿元人民币(下同)，同增+44%，优于安捷证券预期(60.12亿元)及市场预期(48.8亿元)，其中，来自线上营销服务收入54.9亿元，同增+39%，交易佣金收入10.5亿元，同增+76%。公司一季度业绩大幅增长主要得益于用户及交易量的快速提升。1Q20A拼多多实现单季GMV 3,026亿元，同增+99%；平台年活跃买家数达6.28亿，较2019年底净增加4,290万人。受疫情平台对商户广告优惠政策影响，1Q20A线上营销货币化率1.82%，环比下降0.8个百分点，且为近八个季度以来的最低，拉低公司整体货币化率至2.16%。公司Non-GAAP归母净利润-31.7亿元，较去年同期-13.8亿元有所扩大。
海量社交流量快速沉淀，拼多多将充分享受后疫情时代的线上消费提速。得益于微信平台的高效社交流量导流及拼多多平台的强补贴政策，拼多多平台年活跃买家数达6.28亿，已大幅超越京东3.87亿，并与阿里的7.26亿年活跃买家数差距进一步缩小，我们认为该差距有望在未来四个季度补齐。同时，拼多多平台单用户年均消费金额1,842元。我们预计公司FY19A-FY22E GMV有约2倍增长空间，到FY22E GMV有望实现约3万亿。
安捷证券认为公司短期存在盈利压力，但整体现金流水平仍较健康。由于公司目前仍处于流量快速扩张阶段，1Q20A拼多多营销费用合计73.0亿元，占收入比例112%，我们认为随着公司用户数的快速沉淀及经营杠杆的效应增强，营销费用占收入比例将逐步回落。但由于疫情影响，公司实现季度盈利时间点将可能延至2021年。
安捷证券上调拼多多评级至“长线买入”，上调目标价至80.0美金。以用户基础来看，拼多多作为国内第二大电商平台，得益于流量的快速沉淀及供应商生态的精细化运营，从边际增量上看将是最大受益者，FY19A-FY22E收入复合增长有望达到41%。安捷证券上调公司评级至“长线买入”，上调目标价至80.0美金，对应10.2倍 2021E P/S, 74.4倍 2021E P/E(Non-GAAP)。
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